1. Keadaan 27 Nov 08


2. Keadaan 28 Nov 08


3. Keadaan 01 Dec 08


4.Keadaan 22 Dec 08

The Moving Average Technical Indicator shows the mean instrument price value for a certain period of time. When one calculates the moving average, one averages out the instrument price for this time period. As the price changes, its moving average either increases, or decreases.

There are four different types of moving averages: Simple (also referred to as Arithmetic), Exponential, Smoothed and Linear Weighted. Moving averages may be calculated for any sequential data set, including opening and closing prices, highest and lowest prices, trading volume or any other indicators. It is often the case when double moving averages are used.

The only thing where moving averages of different types diverge considerably from each other, is when weight coefficients, which are assigned to the latest data, are different. In case we are talking of simple moving average, all prices of the time period in question, are equal in value. Exponential and Linear Weighted Moving Averages attach more value to the latest prices.

The most common way to interpreting the price moving average is to compare its dynamics to the price action. When the instrument price rises above its moving average, a buy signal appears, if the price falls below its moving average, what we have is a sell signal.

This trading system, which is based on the moving average, is not designed to provide entrance into the market right in its lowest point, and its exit right on the peak. It allows to act according to the following trend: to buy soon after the prices reach the bottom, and to sell soon after the prices have reached their peak.

Moving averages may also be applied to indicators. That is where the interpretation of indicator moving averages is similar to the interpretation of price moving averages: if the indicator rises above its moving average, that means that the ascending indicator movement is likely to continue: if the indicator falls below its moving average, this means that it is likely to continue going downward.

Here are the types of moving averages on the chart:

*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
*Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
*Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA)
*Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA)



Calculation:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)

Simple, in other words, arithmetical moving average is calculated by summing up the prices of instrument closure over a certain number of single periods (for instance, 12 hours). This value is then divided by the number of such periods.

SMA = SUM(CLOSE, N)/N


Where:
N — is the number of calculation periods.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Exponentially smoothed moving average is calculated by adding the moving average of a certain share of the current closing price to the previous value. With exponentially smoothed moving averages, the latest prices are of more value. P-percent exponential moving average will look like:

EMA = (CLOSE(i)*P)+(EMA(i-1)*(1-P))


Where:
CLOSE(i) — the price of the current period closure;
EMA(i-1) — Exponentially Moving Average of the previous period closure;
P — the percentage of using the price value.

Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA)

The first value of this smoothed moving average is calculated as the simple moving average (SMA):

SUM1 = SUM(CLOSE, N)
SMMA1 = SUM1/N


The second and succeeding moving averages are calculated according to this formula:

SMMA(i) = (SUM1-SMMA1+CLOSE(i))/N


Where:
SUM1 — is the total sum of closing prices for N periods;
SMMA1 — is the smoothed moving average of the first bar;
SMMA(i) — is the smoothed moving average of the current bar (except for the first one);
CLOSE(i) — is the current closing price;
N — is the smoothing period.


Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA)

In the case of weighted moving average, the latest data is of more value than more early data. Weighted moving average is calculated by multiplying each one of the closing prices within the considered series, by a certain weight coefficient.

LWMA = SUM(Close(i)*i, N)/SUM(i, N)


Where:
SUM(i, N) — is the total sum of weight coefficients.
source

AO is a 34-period simple moving average, plotted through the central points of the bars (H+L)/2, and subtracted from the 5-period simple moving average, graphed across the central points of the bars (H+L)/2.

MEDIAN PRICE = (HIGH+LOW)/2
AO = SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 5)-SMA(MEDIAN PRICE, 34)

Signals to buy

Saucer

This is the only signal to buy that comes when the bar chart is higher than the nought line. One must bear in mind:

*the saucer signal is generated when the bar chart reversed its direction from the downward to upward. The second column is lower than the first one and is colored red. The third column is higher than the second and is colored green.
*for the saucer signal to be generated the bar chart should have at least three columns.

Keep in mind, that all Awesome Oscillator columns should be over the nought line for the saucer signal to be used.

Nought line crossing

The signal to buy is generated when the bar chart passes from the area of negative values to that of positive. It comes when the bar chart crosses the nought line. As regards this signal:

*for this signal to be generated, only two columns are necessary;
*the first column is to be below the nought line, the second one is to cross it (transition from a negative value to a positive one);
*simultaneous generation of signals to buy and to sell is impossible.

Two pikes

This is the only signal to buy that can be generated when the bar chart values are below the nought line. As regards this signal, please, bear in mind:

*another by followed is and line nought the below which minimum lowest (the down pointing pike a have you when generated signal the down-pointing) pike which is somewhat higher (a negative figure with a lesser absolute value, which is therefore closer to the nought line), than the previous down-looking pike.
*the bar chart is to be below the nought line between the two pikes. If the bar chart crosses the nought line in the section between the pikes, the signal to buy doesn’t function. However, a different signal to buy will be generated — nought line crossing.
*each new pike of the bar chart is to be higher (a negative number of a lesser absolute value that is closer to the nought line) than the previous pike.
*if an additional higher pike is formed (that is closer to the nought line) and the bar chart has not crossed the nought line, an additional signal to buy will be generated.

Signals to sell

Awesome Oscillator signals to sell are identical to the signals to buy. The saucer signal is reversed and is below zero. Nought line crossing is on the decrease — the first column of it is over the nought, the second one is under it. The two pikes signal is higher than the nought line and is reversed too.

source

In principle, Alligator Technical Indicator is a combination of Balance Lines (Moving Averages) that use fractal geometry and nonlinear dynamics.

*The blue line (Alligator’s Jaw) is the Balance Line for the timeframe that was used to build the chart (13-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved into the future by 8 bars);
*The red line (Alligator’s Teeth) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe of one level lower (8-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 5 bars into the future);
*The green line (Alligator’s Lips) is the Balance Line for the value timeframe, one more level lower (5-period Smoothed Moving Average, moved by 3 bars into the future).

Lips, Teeth and Jaw of the Alligator show the interaction of different time periods. As clear trends can be seen only 15 to 30 per cent of the time, it is essential to follow them and refrainfrom working on markets that fluctuate only within certain price periods.

When the Jaw, the Teeth and the Lips are closed or intertwined, it means the Alligator is going to sleep or is asleep already. As it sleeps, it gets hungrier and hungrier — the longer it will sleep, the hungrier it will wake up. The first thing it does after it wakes up is to open its mouth and yawn. Then the smell of food comes to its nostrils: flesh of a bull or flesh of a bear, and the Alligator starts to hunt it. Having eaten enough to feel quite full, the Alligator starts to lose the interest to the food/price (Balance Lines join together) — this is the time to fix the profit.
source

Salam...
Aku nak share beberapa indicator yg masih aku gunakan dlm trading harian aku.

1) Alligator
2) 5SMA
3) 200EMA
4) Stochastic
5) AO

Rupa dalam chart spt beikut:


Macam mane nak masukkan indicator ini...
Bagi mereka yg baru dlm forex ye..mcm ni:

1) Alligator - Dalam platform Metatrader, pergi bahagian atas bernama "Insert". pastu gi ke Indicators -> Bill Williams -> Alligator.

2) 5SMA - Dalam platform Metatrader, Insert -> Indicators -> Trend -> Moving Average.
Masukan Period = 5, Shift = 0, MA Method = simple and Apply to = close.

3) 200EMA - Dalam platform Metatrader, Insert -> Indicators -> Trend -> Moving Average.
Masukan Period = 200, Shift = 0, MA Method = exponential and Apply to = close.

4) Stochastic Oscillator - Dalam platform Metatrader, Insert -> Indicators -> Oscillator -> Stochastic Oscillator.
Masukan %K period : 5, %D period : 3, dan Slowing : 4...Price field : Low/High, MA Method : Simple.
ATAU
%K period : 8, %D period : 3, dan Slowing : 3...Price field : Low/High @ close/close, MA Method : Simple.

5) AO - Dalam platform Metatrader, Insert -> Indicators -> Bill Williams -> Awesome Oscillator.

Itu sahaja caranye.

Nak entry :

Rulesnya spt berikut:
1) Tgk TF30 dan TF1H
2) BUY - pada TF30, bila SMA (garis putih) bersilang dgn alligator (line hijau / lips), dan AO berada di atas line 0 atau ingin cross dr bawah ke atas, posisi buy boleh di ambil. Pada masa yg sama, perhatilan juga Stochastic sama ada ia juga sudah bersilang atau tidak. SL dan TP bergantung pada apa pair yg anda trade. biasa kalau EU, UJ, GU, SL = 30pip...
3) SELL - pada TF30, bila SMA bersilang dgn alligator (line biru / Jaw), dan AO berada di bawah line 0 atau ingin cross dr atas ke bawah, posisi sell boleh diambil. Pada masa yg sama, perhatilan juga Stochastic sama ada ia juga sudah bersilang atau tidak.

Ambillah TP 20pips at least..insyaAllah dpt...

Selamat mencuba.

p/s TF30m diambil memandangkan ia taklah terlalu lama dan tidah terlalu cepat...kalau nak lagi selamat, gunalah TF1H...biasanye saya guna TF30m, entry dan refer TF1H utk tahu momentum price itu...kalau di TF1H, keadaannye sama spt TF30m, maka biasanye price utk terus pergi adalah cerah...boleh lah dpt lebih 50pips atau lebih 100pips.

Can you fill in the blanks:


1) I will NOT trade if/when __________________________________________

2) I will ONLY trade LONG if/when ____________________________________

3) I will ONLY trade SHORT if/when ___________________________________

4) I will STOP trading for the day if/when ______________________________

5) I will STOP trading if I lose ____ pips or _____ trades in a row or $_______

6) I will STOP trading if i make ____ pips or _____ trades in a row or $______

7) I ONLY trade between the hours of _____ and _____

8) I ONLY trade on Sun( ) Mon( ) Tues( ) Wed( ) Thur( ) Fri( ) Sat( )

9) I will NEVER trade if/when ________________________________________

10) I ALWAYS do this BEFORE I begin trading ___________________________

Salam...

Saya mulakan dgn Bismillahhirrahmannirahim...


Artikel di bawah ini saya dpt drp satu blog....

bacalah utk panduan kita...

Mahmud Ibn Labid r.a. pernah berkata, bahawa beliau mendengar Rasulullah bersabda, “Dua perkara yang tidak disenangi oleh anak Adam. Mati, padahal mati itu adalah lebih baik dari dugaan (kesesatan). Harta yang sedikit, padahal harta yang sedikit meringankan hisab. [1]

Namun sekiranya anda ingin juga menjadi seorang jutawan, Allah s.w.t telah berfirman di dalam surah An-Nuur ayat 37 hingga 38, “(Ibadat itu dikerjakan oleh) orang-orang yang kuat imannya yang tidak dilalaikan oleh perniagaan atau berjual-beli daripada menyebut serta mengingati Allah, dan mendirikan solat serta memberi zakat; mereka takutkan hari (kiamat) yang padanya berbalik-balik hati dan pandangan.”

“(Mereka mengerjakan semuanya itu) supaya Allah membalas mereka dengan sebaik-baik balasan bagi apa yang mereka kerjakan, dan menambahi mereka lagi dari limpah kurniaNya; dan sememangnya Allah memberi rezeki kepada sesiapa yang dikehendakiNya dengan tidak terhitung.”

Bermaksud, dengan mengingati Allah, mendirikan solat, memberi zakat dan sedekah, takutkan hari kiamat kerana akan diadili, seseorang itu akan mendapat limpah kurnia Allah dan pembalasan yang paling baik. Allah sesungguhnya satu-satunya sumber segala rezeki dan Dia akan menambahkan kurniaNya kepada hamba yang mempunyai ciri-ciri seperti di atas.

Kajilah Al-Quran dengan sebenarnya-benarnya, kerana tips untuk menjadi jutawan banyak terdapat di dalam Al-Quran. Terjemahan Al-Quran bermodalkan RM20 di pasaran. Menurut Abu Said r.a., Allah berfirman di dalam sebuah hadith qudsi, “Sesiapa yang disibukkan oleh Al-Quran daripada berzikir dan meminta kepadaKu, maka Aku akan memberikan kepadanya sesuatu yang lebih utama daripada diberikan kepada orang yang meminta kepadaKu” [2]

Sekiranya anda bukan berniat untuk menjadi jutawan, tetapi sekadar ingin hidup sederhana, beribadat kepada Allah. Serta dalam masa yang sama tidak mahu mempunyai bebanan hutang dan dikurniakan kecukupan dalam semua perkara, amalkan membaca Surah Al-Waqiah setiap malam. Menurut Ibnu Mas’ud, Rasulullah s.a.w telah bersabda, “Sesiapa yang membaca surah Al-Waqiah pada setiap malam, ia tidak akan ditimpa kemiskinan selama-lamanya.”[3]

Sekiranya anda sekarang berada di dalam keadaan terdesak, ditimpa kesusahan, memerlukan “fast-cash” untuk sesuatu perkara mustahak, maka ikutlah petua Rasulullah s.a.w. Di dalam sebuah hadith yang diriwayat oleh Huzaifah r.a., apabila Rasulullah s.a.w mengalami kesulitan, beliau akan segera mengerjakan solat.[4] Solat yang dimaksudkan adalah solat sunat. Ini adalah selaras dengan firman Allah di dalam surah Al-Baqarah ayat 45, “Dan mintalah pertolongan (kepada Allah) dengan jalan sabar dan mengerjakan solat; dan sesungguhnya solat itu amatlah berat kecuali kepada orang-orang yang khusyuk”.

Di dalam riwayat lain diceritakan oleh Abdullah bin Salam r.a., ketika keluarga Rasulullah menghadapi sebarang kesempitan rezeki, beliau akan memerintahkan mereka mendirikan solat dan membaca ayat 132 surah Taha.[5]Firman Allah di dalam ayat berkenaan, “Dan perintahkanlah keluargamu serta umatmu mengerjakan sembahyang, dan hendaklah engkau tekun bersabar menunaikannya. Kami tidak meminta rezeki kepadamu, (bahkan) Kamilah yang memberi rezeki kepadamu. Dan (ingatlah) kesudahan yang baik adalah bagi orang-orang yang bertaqwa.”

Kebanyakkan yang mengamalkan tip ini mendapat kemurahan rezeki yang luas dan “low profile”. Mereka tidak terburu-buru dan tergesa-gesa dalam mengejar kesenangan. Kebanyakkan mereka akhirnya menjadi komited dalam beribadat atau melakukan aktiviti dakwah. Mereka hanya melakukan sedikit pekerjaan dunia, namun kurnia yang diperolehi melebihi apa yang mereka kerjakan.

Wallahu’alam.

[1] Jami-ul-Saghir (Terjemahan H. Nadjih Ahjad),Imam Suyuthi, PT Bina Ilmu, Jakarta, 2003; Riwayat Ahmad, hadith #166.
[2] Muntakhab Ahadits (terjemahan Muhammad Qasim at Timori), Maulana Muhammad Yussuf Al-Khandalawi, Pustaka Ramadhan, Bandung, Indonesia, 2004; Riwayat Tirmizi, ms327
[3] Jami-ul-Saghir, op. cit.; Riwayat Baihaqi, hadith #8942, menurut Imam Suyuthi berstatus daif.
[4] Muntakhab Ahadits, op. cit.; ms 244
[5] Ibid.

By Robert Folsom

As the economic crisis has unfolded, a lot of different financial issues have played their own special part, and most have had their "day in the headlines." But when it comes to sheer volume of media ink and airtime, the $700 billion bailout probably tops the list. Does it deserve all the attention it's getting?

The "$700 billion" figure was conceived immediately after Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, and has remained in the news virtually every day since. This week the focus was on an "oversight committee" that's supposed to hold the Treasury Department accountable for what it does with the $700 billion. That committee managed to issue its first report on Dec. 10, titled "Questions About the $700 Billion Emergency Economic Stabilization Funds."

I actually read the questions and they seemed reasonable enough. Even so, I couldn't help but wonder if this is the first time in history that a committee put 10 questions down on paper and called it an "Oversight Report" -- even before the department they oversee bothered to give any answers.

Historic firsts aside, there's still the question of $700 billion deserving this much attention. The reflexive answer would be "You're bloody right it deserves attention -- that's a lot of taxpayer money!"

And that's true enough -- "a lot" indeed. Then again, the scope of this crisis has helped make certain dollar amounts somewhat, umm, relative...

...Which is to say: Some numbers are bigger than others. The Treasury has supposedly spent only half of the $700 billion, since it became available on Oct. 3. Of course, it's hard to imagine that the printing presses could go any faster anyway.

But wait: The printing presses HAVE been going a LOT faster. The $700 billion is a sideshow, dear reader.

The Federal Reserve has pumped out $1.23 t-t-trillion in the past 12 weeks alone, through their so-called lending facilities. As for "oversight," you may as well imagine instead a big collective horselaugh. There ain't no oversight. The Fed refused a Freedom of Information Act request to disclose the recipients of their lending (which actually totals $2 trillion so far).

So, I believe that "Too much attention?" to the $700 billion is actually the wrong question. The better one is, "Why almost NO attention to TRILLIONS flowing out of the Federal Reserve?" Bloomberg News has been virtually alone in covering this, and is likewise alone in filing suit regarding the Fed's refusal to disclose who the borrowers are.

The "bailouts" haven't helped anyone or anything except the big institutions on the receiving end. The best help you're going to get will consist of what you do for yourself.

ROBERT R. PRECHTER
The founder and president of Elliott Wave International. He has been publishing The Elliott Wave Theorist since 1979. Mr. Prechter is also Executive Director of the Socionomic Institute, an independent think-tank whose mission is to develop socionomics as an academic discipline and to promote its commercial application.

STEVEN HOCHBERG
Began his professional career with Merrill Lynch & Co. and joined Elliott Wave International in 1994. He became co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast for its inaugural issue in
July 1999.

PETER KENDALL
Joined Elliott Wave International as a researcher in 1992 and has contributed to The Elliott Wave Theorist since 1995. He has been co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast since its inception in July 1999. He is also the director of Elliott Wave International’s Center for Cultural Studies.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin
You may have heard that this week, the Japanese yen hit a 13-year high against the U.S. dollar. As The Financial Times put it in a December 17 article,

The yen appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar in 13 years as the US Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates from 1 per cent to a range of 0 to 0.25 per cent. The yen’s reached Y88.24 to the dollar by mid-afternoon in Tokyo. [Y87.15 on Dec. 17 – Ed.] The currency has gained more than a quarter in value against the dollar so far this year.

To currency traders, this pair is known as the USD/JPY. So, why is the yen gaining? Apparently, "It gained a reputation as a safe-haven currency during turbulent times…" Now that we find ourselves in the middle of a financial crisis, that's a perfectly good explanation – in retrospect. But could you have predicted the yen's current strength six months ago? A year ago?

It depends on how you would have gone about coming up with that prediction. Was there anything in the yen's "fundamentals" six-twelve months ago that would have suggested its current strength? Unless the memory fails me, no. So, a year ago, stating that the yen would soon gain "a reputation as a safe-haven currency" likely would have been nothing but a wild guess.

The opposite of wild guesses is a certainty. Somewhere in-between is a forecast – still a guess, because no one knows the future – but an educated guess, nevertheless. (Maybe even a highly educated one.) Thus, a forecast is not based on guesswork; in the two examples you're about to see, forecasts were based on years of experience and concrete technical evidence that the yen was offering earlier this year.

Here is a forecast for the USD/JPY from Elliott Wave International's monthly Global Market Perspective (GMP) – as published on January 4, 2008, almost exactly a year ago:



Forecast, January 2008 GMP (excerpt): "We can anticipate that the yen will … resume its larger bull trend against the dollar, evidenced by $JPY falling to a new low."

Quote of forex:

IN TRADING CHART TIME FRAMES:

YEARS ARE MADE UP OF MONTHS

MONTHS ARE MADE UP OF WEEKS

WEEKS ARE MADE UP OF DAYS

DAYS ARE MADE UP OF HOURS

HOURS ARE MADE UP OF MINUTES

MINUTES ARE MADE UP OF TICKS

By Nico Isaac
On Friday, December 5, crude oil prices plunged to a four-year low after clocking in their second largest weekly loss in energy trading history. And, according to the mainstream experts, oil's woes -- which are intrinsically linked to the global economic slump -- had only just begun.

On this, the following news items from the day say plenty:

* "Oil to plunge below $25 next year if global recession spreads to China." -- Fox News
* "Oil tallies worst week since 1991 as worse-than-expected US jobs data darkened the outlook for energy demand. It doesn't matter what the price is at this point; it's just 'get me out of any position I have.' " -- Wall Street Journal
* "People are exiting as fast as they can. You don't want to invest in anything that has a high correlation with the economy. After the jobless number, any bulls that were left in the oil market will become extinct." -- Bloomberg

Turns out, oil bulls did NOT go the way of the Dodo. On Monday, December 9, crude prices turned up in a powerful four-day winning streak to two-week highs before reversing south on December 11.
(Staying On Crude Oil's Down-Up-Down-Up Side: Elliott Wave International's Energy Specialty Service reveals where the next big move in crude oil could be. Act now for the complete story.)
When it comes to anticipating near- and long-term trend changes in the financial markets, fundamentals do more harm than good. As for getting the job done right, EWI's Energy Specialty Service editor Steve Craig has remained one step ahead of the major twists and turns in crude oil from the beginning.
Case in point: ONE day before oil hit its all-time peak on July 11, 2008, the July 10 Specialty Service acknowledged the downside potential in the market’s near-term future and wrote:
“Two key topping indicators are still evident – extreme bullish sentiment and relentless media attention. Possible third and fourth signs – volatility and cries for more government regulation of commodity trading – are nearing their heads… It all points to a very mature uptrend.”
As for oil's most recent December 5 low, the December 4 Daily Energy Specialty Service forecast presented this bullish case: "I am looking for a credible ending pattern… Once the bottom is in, a substantial advance should unfold" in wave four.
The best part I saved for last: The latest Energy Specialty Service forecast presents the following chart of Crude prices since the year 1859 -- when the first commercial oil well was drilled in the United States. (Some Elliott wave labels have been erased for this publication)



This historical close-up provides the most comprehensive and objective evaluation of crude’s long-term trend out there.
The picture can be seen in its entirety, along with in-depth analysis on every time frame in the latest forecasts of the Energy Specialty Service.. In Steve Craig's own word: “I’m anticipating a volatile, gut wrenching, fear-laden”move in Crude Oil.

I've got a newsletter from my borker (IBFX) that i'd like to share with all my readers...

Learning to stop trading: an introduction

We talk a lot in the trading world about when to trade; we talk about entries and exits and profit targets and stop losses and moving average crossovers. There are endless threads on massive online discussion boards about trading the news, or whether inside price action "Wicked Fairy" candles are better than "Samurai Warrior Face" inside bars. The arguments about the best place to get into a trade are so extensive that, by now, it's difficult to tell the difference between the methods.

But we don't talk enough about when it's time to quit.

I found that learrning when to stop trading was just as difficult -- or maybe more difficult -- than knowing when to take a trade in the first place. For me, one of the real breakthroughs in my trading was when I realized that I didn't have to trade, that not every day (or every hour) was suitable for trading, and a day off could be just as valuable as a day spent staring at the dual-screen setup.

The fact that the currency markets are open nearly 24 hours a day for 5.5 days per week -- and that a holiday in one country doesn't necessarily shut down trading for the rest of the world -- makes it very tempting to open up the trading platform at nearly any time of the day.

You've certainly got to make your own decisions about what's right for you in your trading, but here are some ideas about why it's a good idea to stop, or when the right time might be.


Stopping when you're losing money

This is probably the hardest thing to do, and I've seen hundreds of traders lose more money than they ever thought they could, or wanted to, because they just simply couldn't stop trading when the chips were down.

For example, when we've just lost money, we often react hyper-emotionally. I know that when I have a losing trade (especially one that happens really quickly), I want the money back right away. And that desire to get the money back right away leads to a nearly overpowering urge to trade again -- now that I've seen where the market is really going (or at least that's what I am thinking), I want to take advantage immediately.

If I can get that money back right away, then I don't have to suffer any indignity that comes with a losing trade.

The truth is that we rarely recoup all those lost profits back in one big counter-trade, or one big "reaction" trade. This can be the type of situation where we start spiraling out of control, taking trade after trade and losing a significant amount of money.

It's sometimes just best to quit for a bit when we have lost. This might be for an hour, for a day, even for a week or month. This time away from the market can give us the space we need to think clearly and get ourselves in a productive state of mind again.


Stopping when we are hyper-emotional

One of the worst times to trade is when we've had a distressing experience. Ever made a trade after you've had an argument with your spouse or partner about money? Or when you've had a particurarly tragic event in your life?

These can be terrible times to trade, because our focus is on the recent emotional experience, and not on what we're doing. When we're not focused or attentive, we make stupid mistakes that can cost us a lot of money.

I have seen emotional traders remove stop losses to "prove a point," or get back at someone through their trading. The trading becomes an expression of their emotions, or an outlet for feelings that they can't say, or didn't say, or can't express in any other way.

The market, unfortunately, doesn't know us personally and couldn't care less about our individual difficult life experiences. It's not going to give us a break or go easy on us because we've had a bad day.

So if you've had a bad experience, consider taking some time to sort out your feelings before you fire up the trading account.


Stopping when we've made money

This might sound strange at first, but it can be one of the most powerful additions to your trading plan: a goal for when you are going to stop trading if you've made money.

Perhaps you set a goal to make 50 pips a week, or a month. That's a goal, mind you, and I'm not implying that everyone or anyone can make 50 pips, or that the majority of traders can make that many pips (remember, trading forex is risky, and the majority of traders lose money -- that's a topic for another week) . The fact is, I don't know what the right number goal-wise is for you. But if you look back over your trading history, can you start to get a sense for what you are able to achieve, if you are a profitable trader?

I have seen traders, time after time, start the week off strong, and get to Tuesday or Wednesday with a reasonable amount of profit, only to see them lose the money in reckless trading during the rest of the week.

In fact, some of these traders consistently lose money week after week, even though early in the week -- for most weeks -- they are actually profitable.

We sometimes treat profits as "found money," or money that we can afford to lose. We have a few winning trades and then we give ourselves room to take an "experimental" trade, or a trade just for the hell of it. This is tantamount to gambling.

Idea: go back in your account and see if you recognize a pattern of making money during the beginning of the day, week, or month. Are you more successful at the start of the week or the end of the week? In what ways are the trades you take different at the start of the day compared to the end of the day? Or week? Or month?

Question: Does this mean that there's never a good time to trade?
It sounds like it's always time to stop!

Trading is not right for everyone. And trading all the time is probably not right for many people at all.

But that doesn't mean that stopping your trading before you start is a good idea. I'm not saying that there are never good times to trade. Here are some thoughts:

1. Consider having some quiet time at the start of each day before you trade. My friend Chris McCloughlin has a rule that he never trades unless he's been awake for an hour -- because he realizes (big surprise) that he doesn't trade well if he is super tired.

2. Measure your emotional state. This doesn't have to be a sit-down with a professional therapist every time you are about to trade. But it's not so difficult to take a moment and gauge your own emotional state at the start of the day. If you think you're a complete wreck today, maybe it's a better day to go feed the ducks. Or see a movie.

3. Have a trading plan, and use it. Make a version of your trading plan that you can keep near you, or keep you focused. Not every trader needs to have the entire plan in plain sight, but most of us can benefit from a regular reminder of what kind of trades we're looking for. It's important to allow yourself to be picky with your trades and wait for the setups that you know you like best.

4. Are you a better trader at a certain time? When you go back through your trade history, do you recognize times that you are more successful? It doesn't have to be a time of day or day of the week; it could be near the time of some fundamental news. It could be around the time when the currency pairs you watch consolidate in a specific pattern. Recognizing when you do best as a trader can help you get more specific about when you are going to dedicate time to take and manage your trades.

Do you really need to do all this analysis, or all this thinking about stopping and starting your trading? Maybe that's not your thing. And it's up to you how deep you go into efforts to learn more about yourself and your trading. I've found it to be true that this kind of deep thinking about what you're doing pays personal dividends -- regardless of how useful it is specifically to your trading. I hope you'll consider some of the things I've mentioned here.

Most of all, I invite you to keep in touch with me about this topic, and let me know what you've learned about the best times that you trade, or how you know when it's time to stop trading. We always love to hear from you, and the folks at IBFX are here to talk with you anytime.

Happy trading!

Seperti diberitahu pada post sebelum ini, keadaan ini akan berlaku sebulan sekali sepanjang tahun untuk market ERU / USD sahaja. Apa yang aku nampak, EU sahaja banyak effect semasa news NFP keluar.

Pasaran lain tidak diketahui. Keadaan ini terjadi apabila berlaku penyelarasan ekonomi baru untuk bulan berkenaan. Keadaan NFP akan berlaku pada awal bulan minggu pertama setiap bulan tepat pukul 8.30 malam (boleh periksa dlm website forexfactory.com utk tahu waktu sebenar news NFP).

Apabila NFP berlaku pasaran akan naik dan turun terlalu banyak antara 100 - 200 pips dalam masa 1 saat. Tetapi ada kalanya ia cuma turun sahaja atau naik sahaja pada kadar pips yang tinggi. Seperti keadaan yg berlaku pada 9 mac 2007 pukul 9.30 mlm, pada jangkaan pasaran USD akan lemah dan akan menyebabkan kenaikan EUR. Tetapi keadaan berlaku terbalik, iaitu EUR lemah dan terus turun sehingga 100 pips. Tetapi selepas itu ia tidak naik semula.Walau bagaimanapun keadaan seperti ini jarang berlaku. Dalam 5 tahun ia hanya berlaku sekali sahaja. Dalam keadaan biasa ia akan naik dan turun seimbang.Apabila menjelang NFP trader mempunyai peluang untuk memaksimumkan untung.30 MINIT sebelum berlaku NFP seperti yg ditetapkan dalam news anda perlu membuat persediaan sewajarnya. Tujuan anda bersedia adalah untuk mendapat untung lebih berbanding biasa.
Langkah 1. -Tentukan berapa banyak floating buy atau sell.
Langkah 2. - Imbangkan floating buy dan sell supaya sama banyak.
Langkah 3. - Set target profit antara 30 - 50 pips utk satu posisi.Anda bertindak untuk membuat penyelarasan ini selewat-lewatnya 5 minit sebelum NFP berlaku. Kemudian jika NFP berlaku dengan pergerakkan perlahan, cepat-cepat tutup posisi yang telah untung. Jika lambat, bimbang akan berlaku sebaliknya.Dengan NFP semua floating akan tertutup dan dengan itu anda akan memperolehi untung maksimum pada hari berkenaan.

TIPS UNTUK MARGIN CALLBERTAHAN DENGAN KESEIMBANGAN BUY DAN SELL
Masalah utama margin call ialah apabila modal anda tidak cukup untuk menahan asakkan keadaan pasaran. Jika berlaku terlalu banyak posisi BUY pasaran menurun akan menyebabkan margin call dan begitu juga keadaan sebaliknya.Teknik menahan asakkan margin call ialah dengan membuat imbangan terhadap bilangan BUY dan SELL. Ini bermakna jika anda telah membuka 5 posisi BUY anda harus imbangkan dengan membuka 5 posisi SELL. Jika berlaku penurunan atau kenaikkan pasaran, salah satu posisi akan untung. Disamping itu salah satu posisi pula akan rugi. Tetapi untuk melawan kerugian berkenaan anda mesti membuka semula poisis yang telah tutup selepas untung. Dengan itu sekali lagi anda telah mengimbangi posisi yang masih belum tutup dan masih rugi. Begitulah keadaan seterusnya, sehingga kedua-dua posisi tutup semua sekali sama ada BUY atau SELL. Putaran keadaan ini akan berlarutan sehingga adakalanya mencapai 2 hingga 3 bulan atau lebih. Penamat bagi keadaan ini selalunya berlaku apabila situasi NON FARM PAY ROLL (NFP) yg akan berlaku pada setiap bulan awal bulan berkenaan.Jika berlaku situasi NFP pasaran akan naik dan turun dalam satu saat sangat tinggi sehingga mencapai 100-200 pips.Dengan itu semua posisi yang masih floating akan tertutup DENGAN UNTUNG semua sekali.

Malam ni seperti malam2 hari Jumaat 1st week of the month yang biasa... kita ada berita paling sensasi yang bakal memberi impak kepada keadaan semasa USD Dollar Amerika dan negara2 yang berurusniaga menggunakan USD sebagai tukaran matawang

Non-Farm Payroll ialah statistik yang diambil dari "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics". Ia mengambil kira tentang kadar pengangguran, pendapatan per kapita mengikut jam dan tempoh mengikut jam bekerja seminggu pekerja2 industri bukan pertanian atau penternakan di Amerika Syarikat. Statistik pekerjaan ini kemudiannya akan memberi kesan kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi US. Secara kasarnya, peluang pekerjaan meningkat, ramai orang bekerja, produktiviti bertambah dan seterusnya hasil negara juga bertambah kadar pekerjaan rendah secara kasarnya bermaksud peluang pekerjaan yang semakin kurang, orang tidak bekerja atau tidak bekerja dan akhirnya pengeluaran hasil negara berkurangan.

Kita sebagai forex trader boleh mengambil kesempatan daripada statistik yang dikeluarkan oleh Biro Statistik Pekerjaan Amerika ini dengan cara melihat forecast yang dikeluarkan. Sekiranya ramalan menunjukkan statistik meningkat daripada rekod terdahulu maka kita boleh bersiap sedia untuk buy dalam masa 5 minit terakhir sebelum statistik rasmi diumumkan. Sebaliknya jika ramalan menyatakan statistik merundum berbanding rekod terdahulu maka kita boleh bersiap sedia untuk sell dalam masa 5 minit terakhir statistik rasmi dikeluarkan.

"Walau bagaimana pun, harus diingat, ramalan tetap ramalan, ramalan adalah berdasarkan kepada berita semasa yang juga dipengaruhi oleh spekulasi-spekulasi terutama sekali dari pihak bank dan juga negara-negara yang ingin mengambil kesempatan menjatuhkan matawang USD dan menaikkan matawang mereka."

Jadi, persoalannya... adakah anda sudah bersedia? Apa persiapan yang anda lakukan? Bagaimana cara anda trade semasa news NFP dikeluarkan? Apakah langkah2 keselamatan yang anda ambil sekiranya market berubah di saat-saat akhir?

Masih byk perkara dlm trading yg perlu aku perbaiki....
"jgn cepat puas hati,,amalkan sikap utk terus perbaiki system trading kita"

I prefer GJ to go up to complete wave v of c.

Based on elliot wave:

salam...

sepanjang cuti 3 hari yg lepas, anak aku tak berapa sihat..die demam sejak sabtu pagi sehingga malam tadi..risau dibuatnye sbb lama demam..alhamduilillah pagi tadi keadaan die normal. Aku harap hari ni suhu badan die tak naik lagi, kalau tak kena gi hospital.

Dan, wife aku pulak ari ni outstation gi kuantan sampai khamis ni,,maknanye selama 2 malamlah aku kena menjaga anak...nak trading pun kena tunggu anak tido dulu..cubaan..

hah,,semalam market GJ byk sideways...aku meharapkan trend...tp tgk ari ni macam mane...

Ok, selamat trading...

when i see monthly chart...first lower at 147.55 was broke...new lower at 138.99 was created yesterday...is the next lower which is at 128.56 could be broken as well? if we see thru elliot wave, it could be...emm just wait till next year..ehehe i think now it would be quite a big triangle (wave iv) soon.....

salam...

1) Apa kena dengan tempoh tarikh 20-24 oct?

2) inilah seminggu yg lepas di mana tercetus pahit manis ku dlm trading (ini bukanlah kali pertama pahit manis aku,,sekadar memberitahu di blog ini)...pahit utk disimpan dan dicatit supaya ianye tak berulang lagi...manis utk kite terus bersyukur dgn ilmu dan rezeki kurniaan Ilahi.....

3) Bermula 13 oct, aku buka akaun baru fxpro...dgn deposit usd700...fxpro ni pun member aku rekemen..die kata bagus..spread GJ pun dlm 7...cuma kalau market tgh turbulent, jadilah dlm 10pip..huhuhu...setakat ini aku puas hati guna fxpro...sblm ni aku sudah mempunyai beberapa broker lain..contohnye spt fxcm, ibfx...etc...saje je aku menambah broker baru ini (fxpro) even skrg dah ada beberapa broker...bila trading sibuk lah tangan dan mata...byk benda nak tgk..nak tgk chart lah...broker broker lah...ehehe


4) emm dgn ilmu, teknik yg aku ade (elliot wave, bolinger band, fibo, BSTS, winpips)...alhamdulillah usd700 skrg dah jadi usd1900++ dlm masa 2 minggu..


5) itu manisnye...apa pahitnye? smlm (jumaat) berlaku satu keadaan di mana GJ jatuh gila gila punye gilalah..emm aku masuk di kala signal dan analisa aku tak berapa myakinkan...tetapi masuk jugak..tu yg kantoi..nasib baik dah close...kl tak boleh rugi besar oooo...emm tu lah akibatnye kalau entry di kala signal tak ok...huhuh...

6) Sabar & ketenangan dlm trading itu penting.

7) Apa bila berlaku pape keadaan sama ada manis atau pahit...pasti akan ku catatkan dlm diari forex aku utk aku jadikan pengajaran & nota peribadi aku..

8) Aku akan terus belajar, belajar dan belajar pasal ilmu forex ini...

9) i must know apa kekuatan dan kelemahan sistem aku...

Sekian jumpa lagi. Selamat bercuti trading.

Ask
Untuk sell pair tertentu

Bid
Untuk buy pair tertentu

Buy
Membeli pair tersebut dan berharap ianya naik untuk untung

Sell
Menjual pair tertentu dan berharap pair tersebut jatuh
untuk untung

Long
Mengharap pair yang dibeli akan meningkat naik

Short
Mengharap pair yang dijual akan menurun

Spread
Perbezaan matawang yang akan dibeli dengan harga pasaran
terkini

Leverage margin
Kadar modal anda dan jumlah kuantiti yang dibenarkan
seperti 1:100 ,1:200

Stop loss
Meletakan satu niai yang anda sanggup rugi jika matawang
yang dibeli tidak menepati posisi yang anda buka.(Contoh anda membeli untuk long
tapi pasaran begerak kearah short)

Exit profit
Meletak harga yang anda jangka ia akan sampai yang
membolehkan anda untung dan position akan aotumatik close

Pending order
Meletakan satu harga yang anda ingin beli apabila ia
sampai, dengan cara ini anda tak payah duduk depan PC untuk monitor

Trailing
Menambah keuntungan sedia ada untuk mengikut pegerakan
pasaran dekat stop loss sebanyak 10 pip. Ini akan membuatkan anda akan untung
apabila position ditutup secara automatik

Indicator
Penunjuk dalam teknikal analisis, seperti canddle stick,
MACD, RSI dan sebagainya

Technical analysis
Diguna untuk meramal pergerakan pasaran berpandukan
sejarah ,trend dan indicator

Fundamental analysis
Meramal pergerakan pasaran berpandukan news (politik dan
ekonomi)

Upward
Pergerakan pasaran menaik

Downward
Pergerakan pasaran menurun

Platform
Software yang digunakan untuk forex trading contoh fx
trading station 2.

Broker
Orang tengah yang diantara trader dan syarikat.

Wiretransfer
Pemindahan wang terus ke akaun bank

Swift
Kod bank

Swap
Kos tambahan akibat penangguhan urus niaga dimana ianya
ada positif dan negatif bergantung pada pair Pair Pasangan mata wang .contoh
EU(euro/usd)

Pips
Perubahan harga matawang dikira dalam bentuk pips dan
berada dihujung angka.

Bullish
Pergerakan menaik secara mendadak

Bearish
Pergerakan menurun secara mendadak

TF (time frame)
Kadar masa untuk membuat analisis menggunakan indicator.
Setiap indicator menggunakan TF yang sesuai seperti M30, H1, H4 & D1

Overbought
Situasi dimana pasangan matawang tersebut sudah terlebih
dibeli dan kemungkinan besar akan jatuh

Oversold
Situasi dimana ppasangan matawang tersebut sudah terlebih
jual dan kemungkinan besar akan naik semula.

Sebagai pedangang matawang, anda perlu tahu masa yang terbaik untuk anda buat trade

Cuba anda bayangkan anda adalah antara jutaan pelancong dari serata dunia yang ingin melancong . Lazimnya kebanyakan penerbangan antarabangsa yang jauh akan tiba di kota-kota besar pada awal pagi.

Setibanya anda dan jutaan pelancong lain dari perlagai airport masuk ke exp:(London) apakah perkara utama yang akan anda lakukan ?

ya, sudah tentu anda akan menukarkan wang yang anda bawa (selalunya semua pelancong akan membawa US Dollar jika pergi ke mana-mana destinasi antarabangsa ) dari USD ke GBP ( Great Britain Pound ). Ini bermakna anda menjual USD yang anda bawa dan kemudian membeli GBP.

Apabila waktu pagi bermula di Britain, pengimport serta pengeksport melalui kargo udara dan laut juga akan membuat tukaran wang yang serupa juga apabila membuat urusan di Britain. Lazimnya, transaksi mereka ini adalah melalui bank-bank dan mencecah berbillion US dolar sehari !.

Penjualan besar-besaran USD dan pembelian besar-besaran GBP oleh anda dan jutaan pelancong lain serta pedagang-pedagang antarabangsa ( pengimport dan pengeksport )dan pelbagai institusi lain tentunya akan menyebabkan USD menjadi murah ( jatuh ) dan GBP menjadi kukuh ( naik harga ).

Semuanya ini berlaku paling aktif BERMULA jam 8.30 pagi di Britain atau bersamaan jam 3.00 petang waktu Malaysia. Ianya juga lebih dikenali sebagai LONDON OPEN.London Open bermaksud waktu di mana bank-bank dan institusi kewangan lain di London memulakan operasi mereka dan tukaran matawang asing mula diurusniagakan dengan banyaknya.

Ini adalah waktu yang terbaik untuk anda " TRADE " atau berdagang pair yang berkaitan GBP atau matawang Eropah yang lain. Sewaktu London Open, lazimnya pasangan GBP/USD akan naik tinggi kerana GBP mengukuh dan USD melemah akibat jualan atau tukaran yang banyak seperti yang di sebutkan tadi.

Apabila waktu menghampiri 1 petang di Britain, urusniaga GBP/USD semakin perlahan.Pada waktu ini, waktu di US adalah jam 8.00 pagi . Bank-bank di US mula dibuka, pelancong mula masuk dan menukar wang mereka ke USD ( membeli USD ).

Iaitu perkara yang sama seperti yang berlaku di Britain pada awal pagi. Ini akan menyebabkan USD menjadi kukuh. tahukah anda jam berapakah waktu di Malaysia jika waktu di US jam 8.00 pagi ? Ya waktu di Malaysia adalah jam 8.00 malam !.Ini adalah waktu yang terbaik untuk berdagang selepas anda menunaikan solat isyak untuk trade pair yang berkaitan dengan USD !)

Diharap dengan contoh mudah ini, sahabat-sahabat di eejam.blogspot.com mendapat sedikit gambaran tentang waktu yang sesuai untuk trade atau berdagang FOREX.

Setiap 'trader' sama ada profesional atau tidak seharusnya menerima dan mengamalkan EMPAT peraturan klasik di bawah dalam setiap urus niaga.Ini bagi menjamin akaun kita akan tidak berada ditahap kritikal pada satu-satu masa.Kita sememangnya ingin atau mahu bertahan lama dalam perniagaan ini dan lebih tepat lagi dikalangan kita ingin mencari kekayaan melalui urus niaga forex ini.Walaupun kita sudah maklum bahawa perniagaan ini sungguh besar risikonya.

EMPAT Peraturan Klasik Pengurusan Risiko Sebagai Pedagang :

1 ) Biarkan pasaran yang mempengaruhi keputusan anda, dan bukan ego anda.
2 ) Biarkan keuntungan berterusan,potong kerugian dengan pantas.
3 ) Sentiasa berpihak kepada pemenang sahaja.
4 ) Ikuti arus.

" Ia adalah terlalu jelas, sehingga ia sukar dilihat. Seorang dungu telah mencari api dengan menggunakan pelita. Jika dia tahu apa itu sebenarnya api, dia pasti telah memasak nasinya dengan cepat"

The Zen of Trading

Bagi mengekalkan kita berada dalam perniagaan ini, EMPAT peraturan klasik dia atas WAJIB kita aplikasikan.Pesanan PENTING untuk diri sendiri dan rakan-rakan.

" Apa yang sedang dikatakan adalah pasaran membuat segala keputusan. satu-satunya keputusan kita adalah untuk mendengar kata pasaran dan menuruti segala penunjuknya. Ia adalah sentiasa benar, dan tidak akan menipu. Hanya kita yang menipu diri kita sendiri."

The Zen Of Trading

Dan salah satu cara untuk kita maju dalam perniagaan ini ialah sentiasa fokus dengan sistem yang kita urus niaga dan pastikan kita menyimpan segala rekod urus niaga kita sendiri. Kita akan dapat melihat sendiri segala kekuatan dan kelemahan urus niaga yang telah dilakukan dalam sesuatu tempoh tertentu. Dan sudah tentu ia menjadikan kita sentiasa berwaspada dan meningkatkan lagi pengetahuan dan pencapaian kita.
source : onerich.blogspot.com

salam semua...

mengapa agaknye aku merasakan sabtu dan ahad membosankan? dan mengapa pulak bila masuk hari sabtu, aku ternanti2 tibanye hari isnin?

begitulah terjadinye pada diriku ini sejak setahun yg lepas sehingga ke ari ini...
kalau dulu, hari sabtu dan ahad memang menyeronokkan tetapi sekarang kurang sikit seronoknye..bukanlah tak seronok langsung, tetapi semacam ada sesuatu yg mengurangkan keseronokan itu...

Ya,,hari isninlah kembali semua trader di depan pc....masa utk berdagang.

Macam biasa, hari sabtu dan ahad aku diisi dgn post mortem prestasi trading aku minggu lepas dan mengenalpasti mengapa ada loss, apa kesilapan yg dah dilakukan dan sebagainye...

Dan seterusnye aku menyusun strategi apa nak buat minggu berikutnye...

Ohh ye..minggu lepas aku buka satu broker baru iaitu fxpro..server fxpro boleh tahan..jarang bila aku masuk entry, ianya sangkut / hang / no connection..setakat ini ok...dan alhamdulillah drp modal usd700 aku masukkan dan start berdagang isnin lepas aku dpt profit usd400++...

Aku rasa tak perlu lagi aku postkan screen shot itu...tgklah end of next week, aku mungkin akan postkan...:)

Oklah selamat kembali berdagang...

Settings:
1) Alligator - Jaw (13), teeth (8) & lips (5)
2) MA - 5
3) AO

This what i am using right now as one of my support template/indicator to see the trend of market especially GJ...i repeat, this is for trend ok, for entry i love to "sell top buy bottom", i have my own ingredient/method for this...

A thorough Forex trading education must include an understanding of the effect market timings can have on trading and liquidity.

One of the most active periods of the day is from the time the London market opens. Often around that time good trading opportunities will appear.

As part of your Forex trading education, learn to analyze market conditions around London open and begin to recognize good setups.

The following questionnaire and checklist will help.

London Open Preparation

About 15 to 30 minutes before London open check the answers to these questions:

- Are the MACD indicators on the 4 hour and 1 hour charts in agreement? If they are not going in the same direction be very careful!

- Is there MACD divergence on the 4 hour, 1 hour, or 15 minute chart? Look for other clues to confirm that price may go in the direction of MACD divergence.

- On the 4 hour chart what is the overall trend?

- Do a Fibonacci calculation on the last swing high and low and see if price is pulling back to an optimum retracement level or whether it is reaching a key extension level.

- Note price in relation to the 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) on the 4 hour, 1 hour and 15 minute charts. Is price bucking the trend? In other words, is price above the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but below it on the 15 minute? Then be prepared for price to go long at some stage. (Draw the opposite conclusion if price is below the 200 EMA on the 4 hour and 1 hour chart but above it on the 15 minute chart.)

- Are any Economic Reports imminent?

- As the candle closes on the 15 minute chart at London open, do you see any distinctive candle patterns such as tweezers, or doji’s or hammers indicating price exhaustion?

- If I entered a trade right now in a particular direction, what would be the risk and where would I place my stop?

Within a few minutes of London open, if you see a number of factors converging from the analysis above, make a decision one way or the other:

- trade

- wait for clearer signals or a better entry point

Carrying out an analysis in this way each day at London open will do much to increase your Forex trading education.

It will make you aware of what is happening on the charts and in the marketplace and help you to arrive at conclusions.

There is no magic formula involved with Forex trading education. Put simply, successful Forex trading is the result of years of hard work, study, practice, and experience often gained through painful trading scenarios.

Eventually the newer trader learns mental discipline, and how to control the emotions - probably the biggest part of a Forex trading education.

Practice a procedure like the one above day after day and begin to see some progress as you get nearer the time you make profits consistently from currency trading.

The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.

As i mentioned earlier, i also use fxhunter as my guidance in trading even at the same time i use elliotwave and my technique itself...right now, the new branded of fxhunters called Winpips has been introduced...

I am highly recommend that you all get the copy of fxhunter/winpips legally. Just go to
http://www.fx-hunters.com/

Thanks

Nice to read.....

The hardest but also most important lesson to learn in trading is how to handle losses gracefully. Most traders will inevitably encounter a string of losses at some point, so those who can't lose without being thrown off their game won't survive the market. The traders who have realistic win/loss expectations and a trading system they trust have the best chance of prevailing over tough market conditions. Here we look at what kind of losses traders can expect and how they can adjust their focus and strategy to deal with these losses.

Losing Battles…
Every trader worth his or her salt knows that trading against the trend is not a good idea. So it seems logical that the best trading systems would be those that follow the trend: when the trend is going up, take long trades only, and when it's going down, it's time to go short. That being said, you'd think that trend-following systems would have the best win/loss ratios, right?

In his new book, " A Short Course in Technical Trading", Perry Kaufman offers some sobering statistics on the matter. According to this veteran program-trading expert and author, "You can expect 6 or 7 out of 10 trend trades to be losses, some small some a little larger." And yet, Kaufman says that trend-following systems are some of the best trading systems around. In other words, trend-following systems won't yield huge profits, but they'll still do better than most systems.

It will probably come as a shock to those who have spent countless hours searching for a winning system, but Kaufman makes it absolutely clear in his book that having realistic win/loss expectations means expecting losses - lots of them. He states, "As a trend trader, you should expect mostly small losses, some small profits, and a few large profits."

If it gets across this point alone,"A Short Course" is a worthwhile addition to your library. Kaufman provides an example to demonstrate a phenomenon traders in the game for the long haul have come to learn the hard way:

"In a normal distribution of 1,000 coin tosses, half of them would be single runs of heads or tails. Half of those, 25%, would be a sequence of either two heads or two tails. Half of the remaining, 12.5%, would be sequences of three in a row, and so on. Therefore, in 1,000 coin tosses, you can expect only one run of 10 heads or tails in a row."
In other words, in 1,000 trading days - or about four years - a trader could expect to experience 10 wins (or losses) in a row only once, that is, if trading were as random (normally distributed) as a series of coin tosses, which it is not.

So, your odds of winning with trend-following systems are better than your odds of winning a series of random coin tosses, but there are other challenges to having more winning than losing trades. Although markets are not random, you can still expect short-term random movements within a trend, major reversals at the end of each trend, and the time lag most trend-following systems experience when getting into and out of the market.

As a result, thanks to lags and unexpected short-term random movements, you are still subject to the effects of randomness. Given enough time, an experienced trader can expect to suffer 10 or more losses in a row. It is not a matter of if, but when.

When asked about realistic trading expectations, Thomas Stridsman, author of " Trading Systems That Work" and " Trading Systems and Money Management", had this to say:

"What is more important than how large your winning trade is when you win, or how many winners or losers you might have in a row. It is the mathematical expectancy of your strategy. That is, how much are you likely to win on average on all trades, winners and losers combined, and how much this value is likely to fluctuate in the short term.

"For an even further increase of peace of mind, you also probably are better off looking at profitable time periods, such as weeks or months, rather than profitable trades. Simply looking at a win/loss ratio is not enough."

If you think that doing either more or fewer trades would be a more successful strategy, think again. Kaufman demonstrates in "Short Course" that the more trades the trader performs, the lower his or her profits over the long haul. On average, longer-term trades generate more eventual profits. However, if you're a long-term trader, your risk of getting one or more big losses is increased, since you are in the markets longer and therefore exposed to risk for more prolonged periods. Bottom line, no matter what your trading style or preferred time in a trade, you will lose and lose big on more than one occasion.


Kaufman has the data to back up his claims. He has performed thousands of tests on various systems, and some of these are presented in Short Course. In one example, he tested Microsoft for 10 years ending Jan 2001 and covering a period when the stock moved from a pre- split price of $1.04 to a high of $60 in Dec 1999. It should be pretty easy to beat the odds following that kind of trend, right?

Using an 80-day moving average during the period to generate buys and sells the system, trading both long and short positions, generated a total of 88 trades. Of these, only 36 trades - or 41% - were profitable. And Kaufman comments in the book that "[t]hat's actually good for a trend system, which often has closer to 35% good trades".

These depressing stats are echoed by John Murphy in his book, " Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets". Murphy says that professional traders, on average, experience losing trades about 60% of the time. In other words, they win only about 40% of the trades they enter. Given the grim facts, rookie traders may wonder how it's possible to make money in the markets. All of this begs the question: how can a system that has more losing than winning trades be profitable?

…While Winning the War
Let's look at an example of a system that does very well in a relatively short period, but falters over time. I ran a number of tests to determine if using commercial commodity traders' net positions - published each week by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports - was useful in trading an index. Tests were performed for the period of 1999 through 2003 using the S&P 500 Index futures and results were impressive.

Using a five- and 22-week simple moving average of commercial traders' positions, buying each time the five-period SMA crossed above the 22-period SMA and selling when it crossed below, the strategy earned 804 points. Contrast this to a loss of 245 points for a buy-and-hold strategy during the four-and-a-half-year period between Feb 12, 1999, and Oct 3, 2003. If we assume the trader traded one S&P 500 e-mini contract with a margin (risk) of $1,800, the profit would have been more than $40,000 after commissions. Out of a total of 12 trades, seven were profitable - that's a win/loss ratio of 58%.

The same tests were performed for the 13-year period from Feb 16, 1990, through Oct 31, 2003. Results were far less impressive. The system returned a total of 555 points, whereas a buy and hold over the same period returned 696 points. Our win/loss ratio also dropped: only 26 out of 55 trades were profitable, giving a ratio of 47%. Not only was the system not nearly as impressive over the longer period, but it was also significantly outperformed by a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

The moral of the story? Whenever you see claims that systems generate outstanding returns over short periods, remember that such statistics are worthless without looking at the bigger picture. Even worse, these claims often create unrealistic expectations in the mind of the new trader who takes them at face value.

Stridsman explains how to compare a trading system to a buy-and-hold strategy:


"The trick here is to analyze the system for its effective time spent in the market. For example, if a system is in the market only 50 percent of the time, you can put on twice as many contracts each time the system enters into a trade, as compared to what you would have in a buy-and-hold situation over the entire period to achieve the same amount of contract hours spent in the market. Looked at this way, in the 50 percent case the profits made per contract traded should be at least half that of the constant-contract, buy-and-hold strategy. Proper money management also allows you to increase the number of contracts traded as your equity grows, whereas a buy-and-hold strategy doesn't give you the same flexibility."

When you approach trading with the assumption that there will be more losing than winning trades, your primary focus shifts dramatically. Instead of spending inordinate amounts of time buying, testing and discarding systems that fail to meet your unrealistic expectations of 70 to 80% (or more) wins to losses, you can concentrate your efforts in the more important but far less sexy area of money management. (For more on money management, take a look at this tutorial on the subject.)

On average, traders spend at least 10 times more time and effort on seeking the magic formula for trading than on learning to manage the trade. This is obvious if you compare the number of trading signal systems available to the number of money management systems available. The same is true for best-selling trading books. When was the last time you saw a best-seller that concentrated on money management? This may explain why so few traders actually graduate to the point of being consistent in the trading game.

Conclusion
Since a large number of professional traders experience more losing than winning trades, learning how to lose is essential to making it as a trader. Furthermore, an effective money management program is absolutely necessary to a trader's survival and long-term profitability. A key part of any money management program is having an effective trading plan and sticking to it. (For more on constructing a trading plan, see the article Ten Steps to Building a Winning Trading Plan.)

Consider what veteran trader and market teacher Larry Williams said in a 2004 e-mail: "Since losses are an integral part of this game, a strategy is as essential as the proper attitude. All jobs have good days and bad days so deal with it. There are no 100% certain trades."

Looking for a system that will win 80% of the time or more is a fool's game. Those who adopt a hope-for-the-best-but-plan-for-the-worst mentality and concentrate their efforts on far more important issues will set themselves up for long-term success. It is the difference between taking a short-term view to win a few battles at any cost and marshaling resources in the battles you lose to ultimately win the war.

If you're serious about getting a handle on this topic, check out the books by Kaufman discussed in this article. You will also find Thomas Stridsman's book, " Trading Systems and Money Management", a worthwhile read for its detailed discussion of win/loss ratios, realistic expectations for various trading systems, and money management strategies. Consider it a reading assignment with potentially big dividends.

end---

usd1683.23

Here is my 3 days profits in GJ from 8 oct - 10 oct...after more than a week unable to trade to celebrate Hari Raya, now i feel "kekok" pulak on 8 oct 08...there were -ve figures but alhamdulillah replaced with +ve +ve and +ve...net profit 3 days i've got usd1335.92

These Commandments for discipline in trading (curreny or stock trader) should improve your trading success if adopted and followed. They were developed after years of experience from trading in the stocks, Forex, and options market and from reading hundreds of books and filtering the essence of knowledge from each, and from continuous research and study of the markets.

1) Trade free from fundamental problems .Don't judge a stock. Don't try to explain a losing position, or love a winning one. A stock may have its "Fundamental Truths," but the "Absolute Truth" is the price.

2) Focus on the proper strategies for trading, and not on making money. Money is merely a result of skill level, or lack thereof. As long as you trade with continuous discipline, don't review prior trades with a "should have" way of thinking. Both winning and losing trades should be reviewed during your journey towards mastering trading.

3) Develop a consistent trading style with your personality and philosophy. Trade on your nature!

4) Decide the reward-risk ratio of each trade before entering. Risking the farm to make peanuts is not the right decision. Create the plan only BEFORE the trade!

5) Sometimes the best action is no action. Only fools think that they must trade every day.

6) Trade along the trend since stock prices flow in the direction of least resistance. If a stock goes against your trend then get out. When in doubt, stay out.

7) There are no emotions in trading. Disciplined traders can watch the market from the perspective as if they are not in a position, even when they are. Do what the market is telling you, not what you think it is right.

8) Make the market come to you. If it doesn't play "as you wish," step aside. Be disciplined, and be patient, and never trade when physically or mentally disturbed.

9) The true battle is not against the market, but learning how to control your own emotional out bursts, psychological demons, and human nature. Many internal battles of letting fear and greed control logic and discipline which unfortunately result in painful losses will be needed in your trading maturation process.

10) There are no "holy grails," magic software to success. Professional traders never stop being students of the markets. Spend time daily developing your skills to be a better person and trader, and take responsibility for your own trades and actions.

argghh...

i start my work today after a long holiday...

To all of you happy working & trading as well!!

Salam...

hari ini aku melalui perjalanan selama 9 jam 30 minit bermula jam 8.30am - 6pm sejauh 650km...eheh hari ni balik kg aku...

letih lah...bye cu..

salam...

skrg aku dah di kutan kota bharu...bertolak dari KL pada jumaat petang jam 3.30 dr KL dan sampai kutan pada jam 10.30 malam...pejalanan tak de jem, cuma di bentong ada pokok tumbang ditambah pula dgn hujan di sepanjang jalan...pendek kata 70% pejlnan diiringi dgn hujan...tp alhamdulillah yg penting Allah selamatkan kami sekeluarga sampai di destinasi yg dituju.

hari ni hari ke-2 aku kat kampung...pagi2 ni baru nak update blog...smlm satu hari tak bukak pc pun...ehehe..

pape pun, i wish u all, selamat menyambut hari raya aidilfitri,,dan bergembiralah bersama keluarga tercinta.

jumpa lagi...c u..

Salam...

this week i am so busy with my office work...and when i came back from the office, i was so tired...spend some time to trade...this week, not many post i can trade...

hurrayyy..i am going back to my wife's kampung this friday afternoon insyAllah...this year i celebrate hari raya at kutan, kota bharu, kelantan...ehehe the 3rd hari raya, i am going back to my kampung at muar johor...ehehe...

may Allah protect and bless us in our journey to meet our parents and family at kampung..AMINNNN....

I incline GJ to go up to complete wave v.

BSTS
I attended the course on 23 March 08. you can see me at http://img525.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dsc00003jm5.jpg (the guy wearing white cap)

It's a very good course. And also the support after course is also great..until now all ex-students of Jebat are fully supported (in term of knowledge and elliot wave counting)

The details about the course:
Malaysia Forex Training Centre is designed to provide novice currency traders with a broad overview of the Forex market. The course covers everything from reading forex quotes to trading on margin, using technical analysis to identify market trends and opportunities, and much more.

Our Forex Workshop is a comprehensive training program designed to teach investors how to :

1. Recognize and capitalize on the market trends using an Elliot Wave Trading Strategy.

2. Read and analyze currency charts using an advanced technical tools specially provided by us called "Bujang Senang Trading System I, II & III"(BSTS).

3. Manage risk and protect open positions using trailing stop loss, multiple entry and exit strategy.

4. Anticipate and react to major economic events impacting global currencies.

Let study my forecast based on Elliot wave for EU:
Time frame is H4

It's just my forecast based on my Elliot Wave counting...

Let's see timeframe H4:




Timeframe M30:

Ini aku ambil dari salah satu forum...just utk pengetahuan...ia dalam bahasa indonesia..

Sejarah Pertukaran Mata Uang Asing
lebih lengkapnya di http://www.belajarmarketiva.com

Sejak jaman dahulu, manusia telah melakukan perdagangan dengan sekelilingnya untuk berbagai alasan dengan cara sistem barter. Seiring dengan perkembangnya jaman dan peradaban sistem barter ini gugur karena mempunyai banyak kelemahan sehingga ditemukan sistem – sistem pembayaran yang baru yang sampai pada akhirnya dengan menggunakan uang sebagai alat pertukaran dan pembayaran. Sistem pembayaran dengan menggunakan uang juga mempunyai kelemahan untuk bertransaksi dengan suatu negara yang memiliki jenis mata uang yang berbeda.

Kebutuhan akan nilai tukar timbul karena mata uang suatu negara biasanya tidak diterima sebagai media atau alat tukar di negara lain. Hubungan perdagangan internasional menimbulkan adanya permintaan dan penawaran terhadap beberapa mata uang. Hal ini kemudian menyebabkan perkembangan pada bursa pertukaran mata uang asing, sehingga di perlukan pengatur untuk berjuta-juta transaksi permintaan dan penawaran yang terjadi setiap hari, yang menuju pada penentu nilai tukar mata uang asing.

Sejarah pertukaran/perdagangan mata uang dapat dikatakan setua uang itu sendiri dan baru mendapat perhatian yang serius oleh banyak negara pada dekade terakhir ini. Kalau di tinjau pada dekade standar emas (1880 – pecahnya PD I), pada masa tersebut uang dijamin oleh emas murni yang merupakan standar negara tersebut. Defisit neraca pembayaran akan ditutup dengan transfer emas, hingga mengakibatkan money supply menurun dan harga di luar negeri seakan naik, sehingga hal ini akan meningkatkan ekspor sampai defisit hilang, demikian sebaliknya. Dengan demikian, nilai mata uang relatif stabil.

Sampai PD I, standarisasi emas memungkinkan tercapainya tingkat koreksi yang tinggi terhadap neraca pembayaran. Tetapi, tidak demikian pada saat peperangan, kemungkinan besar karena tumbuhnya serikat-serikat perdagangan dan perusahaan-perusahaan besar, adanya jaminan upah dan harga sehingga tidak mudah menurunkan kecenderungan tersebut, yang berdampak berkurangnya lapangan pekerjaan. Karena membengkaknya pengangguran pada awal 1930-an, standarisasi emas tidak dipakai lagi.

Setelah perang dunia selesai dan depresi ekonomi dunia pada tahun 1930 – an, dunia menginginkan suatu stabilitas ekonomi yang lebih baik. Sehingga Pada tanggal 22 Juli 1944, atas prakarsa dari Amerika Serikat, diadakan suatu konferensi Moneter Internasional yang dikenal dengan : “The Bretton Woods Conference“, yang dihadiri 44 negara. Usulan yang diajukan oleh delegasi Amerika Serikat (White Plan) menyusun rencana-rencana dasar yang disetujui.

Dalam konferensi tersebut, diciptakan suatu system pertukaran mata uang tetap yang disebut dengan “Fixed Exchange Rate System“, yang mempunyai beberapa persamaan dengan standar emas, dimana memuat ketentuan :

1. Tiap negara menetapkan nilai tukarnya terhadap mata uang USD;
2. Amerika menetapkan nilai USD terhadap emas (USD 35/ounce);
3. Amerika akan menjual emas dengan harga tetap kepada pemegang resmi dari mata uang USD;
4. Perubahan nilai tukar mata uang terhadap USD tidak boleh melebihi 1%, bila terpaksa bisa sampai max 10%.

Sejak saat itu negara – negara di dunia serta Amerika mulai tumbuh dengan pesat dan dua tahun setelah konferensi tersebut, didirikan lembaga moneter internasional & Bank Dunia yang kita kenal saat ini dengan IMF (International Monetary Fund) dan Word Bank, untuk mengawasi system tersebut.

Kemudian perubahan terjadi di Amerika, Pada periode tahun 1960-an, defisit neraca pembayaran Amerika memaksa negara tersebut melepaskan cadangan emasnya sebesar USD 18 billion karena Prancis menukarkan USD-nya dengan emas dan di lanjutkan pada periode tahun 1970-an, amerika kembali harus melepaskan cadangan emasnya sebesar USD 11 billion. Buruknya perekonomian Amerika pada waktu itu menyebabkan masyarakat dunia kurang percaya terhadap USD. Dan di negara yang memiliki mata uang yang kuat karena memiliki cadangan emas yang cukup seperti Swiss dan Jerman, mereka menukarkan USD-nya dengan mata uang mereka yaitu CHF dan MDK. Hal ini menyebabkan hutang jangka pendek yang hampir jatuh tempo di Amerika mencapai hampir dua kali cadangan emasnya.

Sistem Bretton Wood hanya mampu bertahan hampir mencapai 30 tahun, pada tanggal 15 Agustus 1971, Presiden Nixon mengumumkan perubahan system nilai tukar untuk USD dengan membiarkan nilai tukarnya mengambang (Floating Exchange Rate System), hal ini ditegaskan kembali dalam suatu konferensi di Washington pada tanggal 17-18 Desember 1971 (SMITHSONIAN CONFERENCE), dari sinilah lahirnya nilai kurs yang mengambang dan berlaku sampai dengan sekarang.

Setelah Presiden Nixon menetapkan nilai mengambang untuk mata uang USD, banyak negara yang memutuskan untuk mengambangkan nilai tukarnya, seperti : Jerman, Inggris, Belanda, bahkan Jepang dan tahun – tahun berikutnya banyak negara di dunia yang membiarkan nilai uangnya mengambang sesuai dengan mekanisme pasar, yaitu kekuatan permintaan dan penawaran.

This is winpips system...
you may get it at http://www.fx-hunters.com/ or http://fxhuntersdon.blogspot.com/

i started trading at 9.40pm...market is going to close soon before open on monday.....

here is what i get within 7 minutes trading:
usd45.70 + usd74.29 + usd44.55 = usd164.54

I am trying to trade GJ this week (GBP/JPY = Pound vs Yen)....

ok...on 16 sept08 and 17 sept08..this what i get as a part time trader...net profit usd177.01 (about 80pips)..


what about 18 sept08:
i get usd802.40...

I prefer UJ will go up..

Note: Also find the same analysis at http://www.mrforecast.com

This prediction is for next week (8 - 12 sept 08)

I prefer uptrend is going to take place.

Also find the same analysis at http://www.mrforecast.com